Forecast How AI Will Progress in 2026

This post was submitted by a SAIRC member either as a recommended read or student-created post. All credit remains with the original author.

An open invitation to submit your own forecasts for 2026 across benchmark performance, revenue growth, technical progress, and public opinion — a good low-barrier way for students to practice calibrated reasoning about AI. The post first scores the 2025 round, where "the forecaster aggregate was about right on benchmarks, underestimated revenue growth, and overestimated public salience," with a median human-level machine intelligence timeline of 2030.